Wide receiver is very deep this year. Not that there is anything wrong with the top guys, but probably none of them find their way onto my roster because of scarcity at RB. Once you get past the top-20 or so guys, pay special attention to the defense of the receiver. Bad defenses lead to a lot of passing as teams try to catch up. Good defenses lead to offenses running the ball to run out the clock.
Sleepers–Pierre Garcon, Redskins; Darius Heyward-Bey, Raiders; Greg Little, Browns; Titus Young, Lions; Randy Moss, 49ers; Eric Decker, Broncos;
Overvalued–Julio Jones, Falcons; Victor Cruz, Giants; A.J. Green Bengals; Mike Wallace, Steelers; Kenny Britt, Titans; Demaryius Thomas, Broncos; Brandon Lloyd, Patriots
Undervalued–Brandon Marshall, Bears; Miles Austin-Jones, Cowboys; Vincent Jackson, Chargers; Pierre Garcon, Redskins; Randy Moss, 49ers
Rookies–Brian Quick, Rams; Michael Floyd, Cardinals; Justin Blackmon, Jaguars; Kendall Wright, Titans; A.J. Jenkins, 49ers; Alshon Jeffrey, Bears; Reuben Randle, Giants; Stephen Hill, Jets; Ryan Broyles, Lions; Josh Gordon, Browns
PPR–Calvin Johnson, Lions; Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals; Andre Johnson, Texans; Roddy White, Falcons; Brandon Marshall, Bears; Percy Harvin, Vikings; Wes Welker, Patriots; Reggie Wayne, Colts; Anquan Boldin, Ravens; Davone Bess, Dolphins
Calvin Johnson–Johnson has been going in the first round of most drafts, as expected. We all know what he can do. The problem for me is the Madden Curse. I’m sorry but that curse has screwed everyone that’s been on the cover of it. I’m not wasting a first rounder to find out if it will again. Also, WR is incredibly deep this year so positional value makes it unlikely I take him in the first.
Larry Fitzgerald–Last year he was downgraded because of the crappy quarterbacks that were throwing to him. Yet, he still put up awesome numbers and he’s not going to stop. I think John Skelton will win that competition and that’s a good thing for Fitzgerald as he seems able to get the ball to him.
Andre Johnson–Johnson is still one of the most gifted receivers in the league but an injured groin ruined his season last year. He’s been sliding because people are putting the injury prone label on him even though he’s actually been pretty durable throughout his career. If he’s there in the third round, you have to take him.
Roddy White–I took Roddy White in the second round in a lot of drafts last year and it hurt me. He was pretty mediocre for the first half of the season and by the time he started producing at his expected level, it was almost too late. He ended up posting numbers we thought he would, minus some TD’s. It’ll be interesting to see how Julio Jones cuts into his targets in his second year.
Greg Jennings–Jennings would up being the second leading receiver on his own team due to an injury that sidelined him towards the end of the year. Look for him to get back to posting 1300+ yards and double digit touchdowns again.
Hakeem Nicks–Nicks has been slowed by an injury this offseason but reports are he will be fine by training camp. I think he’s getting overlooked a bit due to his injury and Victor Cruz overshadowing him a bit. Make no mistake about it, Nicks is the best receiver the Giants have.- Julio Jones–Jones is everyone’s breakout star this year which is causing his ADP (average draft position) to rise to the point he’s overvalued. Jones has had trouble staying healthy in college and in his rookie season last year. He’s also been prone to drops. He has all the talent in the world, but I suggest letting someone else spend a third round pick on him. If he’s there in the late fourth or fifth, don’t hesitate.
Brandon Marshall–Marshall will be playing with a good quarterback again, someone he has a ton of familiarity with. His size alone will dictate red zone opportunities and he’s a lock for 90+ catches this year. He’s a bit undervalued at this point.
Marques Colston–Solid if unspectacular, he’s going to get 1200 yards and double digit touchdowns pretty much no matter what. I think he’s more of an upper echelon WR2 than a 1 this year. Value goes up in a PPR league though.
Percy Harvin–Harvin was arguably the hottest receiver at the end of last year. The Vikings will use him on returns, out of the backfield, and outside the numbers. In a PPR league he’s a viable WR1.- Victor Cruz–Cruz came out of relative obscurity to have an unbelievable season. I still think he’s going to be good but I think you’re paying for last years stats at his current ADP. A WR2 for me, albeit a good one.
- Jordy Nelson–Nelson started the season as the #3 receiver for Green Bay but quickly gained the second job across from Greg Jennings and never looked back. I don’t think he will score 15 td’s again but he could still be in the lower double digits. Solid WR2.
A.J. Green–Green is an ultra-talented WR and most experts have him rated a bit higher than me. However, I am just not a believer in Andy Dalton. Green will still put up good numbers but more of a WR2 even though he has top-5 talent.
Wes Welker–If you’re in a PPR league, I’d rank Welker third. In a standard league, Welker is more of a WR2 as he won’t get a ton of red zone opportunities with Gronk, Hernandez, and Lloyd in the picture.
Antonio Brown–If you’re league counts return yardage, he gets a slight uptick in value from here. Mike Wallace is holding out and no one is sure when he will sign his tender. Until then, Brown is the the number one receiver on an offense that loses it’s starting running back for at least the first six games. Brown only had 2 TD’s last year but had almost 1200 yards playing across from Wallace. I expect his TD’s to go way up along with his value. One caution I will throw out there is that Ben Roethlisberger has a small tear in his rotator cuff that could get worse as the season progresses.
Miles Austin-Jones–He was a top 10 pick at this position last year only to have injuries pretty much wipe out his season. He should be fully healthy to start the year and just about everyone is sleeping on him this year. WR2 with upside to be a lower end WR1.
Stevie Johnson–Stevie Johnson was plagued by a groin muscle that while he even though he didn’t miss any games, caused him to play at less than 100%. Don’t be afraid of him because he has to play Revis twice a year, Johnson had good games against the Jets last year.- Mike Wallace–Wallace will be drafted as a number one receiver but I view him as more of a one trick pony whose value takes a huge hit because of his holdout and of the possibility of a Roethlisberger injury. Bust candidate.
- Dez Bryant–Bryant is as talented as any player on this list. The only thing holding him back is himself. He could end up being a top-5 player here or could be suspended for doing something completely idiotic. Select at your own risk.
Vincent Jackson–Jackson had been a very good receiver for the Chargers and I don’t think he will miss a beat going to the Bucs. Josh Freeman has the arm strength to stretch the field with Jackson.
Jeremy Maclin–Maclin started off the season on fire but some nagging injuries cost him from putting together a good season. I’m comfortable with him as a great WR3.
Dwayne Bowe–Bowe was a poor man’s Larry Fitzgerald last year as even though he had crap at the QB position, he still managed to put together a solid season. Matt Cassel being healthy all season would push Bowe’s value up.
Kenny Britt–I’ve seen Britt ranked in the top 10 but I think it’s almost certain he gets suspended for ANOTHER DUI arrest. He’s got top-15 talent but he’s coming off an ACL injury and has that suspension looming over him. He’s being overdrafted at this point but if he slides to the middle rounds, you might want to think about taking him.
Demaryius Thomas–I think Thomas is another “sleeper” pick that is getting overdrafted to the point that he isn’t a sleeper anymore. Peyton Manning’s arm strength is what you need to be concerned about. Thomas’ value will be stretching the field like Pierre Garcon did in Indy. If Manning can’t throw deep than I think Thomas’ value will be hurt considerably.
Steve Smith–I think we all wrote Steve Smith off last year. Cam Newton really seemed to revitalize him and while I think his numbers take a bit of a hit this year, he still is a great WR3 for me.- DeSean Jackson–If you’re in a PPR league, Jackson isn’t that great. He’s famous for two catches for 90 yards one game and 3 catches for 30 yards in another. Boom or bust player. Standard leagues are a bit different and if your league counts return yardage his value goes up. Although if Mike Vick gets injured he will be dealing with Mike Kafka or Nick Foles which doesn’t bode well for him.
Pierre Garcon–I wasn’t a big Garcon fan last year and I scrutinized the Redskins for signing him to such a large contract in the offseason. But, Garcon and Robert Griffin III seem to have a good rapport and I could see Garcon pushing his way into WR2 territory.
Robert Meachem–Meachem was stuck behind a host of talented receivers in New Orleans and now finds himself as the top receiver with Phillip Rivers as his QB. Before I buy in though, I want to see him go against opposing team’s number one corner, something he’s never done before.
Reggie Wayne–An oldie but goodie, Wayne will still get the lions share of receptions from Andrew Luck and will post another 1,000 yard receiver. Gone are the days however, where he was a WR1. Now he’s just a good WR3.
Denarious Moore–I think the best way to describe Moore’s value is as a poor mans version of DeSean Jackson, minus the return touches.
Sidney Rice–Rice produces when healthy but that has been a rare sight the last couple seasons. If he’s your WR4 I think you’re in terrific shape but I wouldn’t depend on him as a starter.- Lance Moore–Moore isn’t starter worthy but Drew Brees loves to find him in the redzone. Moore is an elite WR4.
- Darius Heyward-Bey–He came on real strong in the second half of last season and I think he even has some upside in PPR leagues. It’s hard to call a former top-10 pick a sleeper but I think he is this year. I wouldn’t be worried if he was my number 3 WR.
- Brandon Lloyd–This might be a little too low for him but I have some concerns about just how many chances he’ll get. He’s not going to take that many away from Welker and Gronk and I think Hernandez is one of the most underrated players in the league. WR4 at this point for me. An injury away from being a WR2 or low end WR1 though.
Greg Little–Someone is going to have to catch the ball in Cleveland. Massaquoi had another concussion while Josh Gordon ran some of the worst routes I’ve ever seen. Little is great after the catch, one of the better players in the league at that actually. If he can cut down on some of the drops, he has WR3 potential for this season.
Santonio Holmes–Someones gotta catch the ball in New York too but Holmes is such a streaky/wishy-washy player that he could quit on his team again. His value is that of a WR4 but I wouldn’t draft him as anything more than a WR5.- Titus Young–Young is going to start off as the third receiver in Detroit but I think he takes Nate Burleson’s job at some point and if the Madden cover curse hits Calvin Johnson, he might end up being a WR2. Good PPR potential as well.
Anquan Boldin–Boldin is a WR3 in PPR leagues but more of a WR4 in standard leagues.
Randy Moss–He’s not the Randy Moss of old and he doesn’t have Tom Brady throwing him the ball. He is still a tall receiver who has great hands and while he probably has lost a step or two, he is still one of the faster players at his position. Taking him late in the draft could be a home run or he might actually be done. Low risk high reward.- Malcolm Floyd–Floyd has been a sleeper and breakout candidate for a couple years now but he’s never quite done anything great. He’s good for about 800 yards and 6 TD’s while missing a couple games. Bye week fill-in.
- Torrey Smith–I think he might be rated a bit low but I’m not a big believer in Joe Flacco. Smith has a ton of speed and could be a DeSean Jackson type vertical receiver. He’s had some problems with drops but seemed to get better with it towards the end of the year.
Laurent Robinson–Robinson excelled when injuries hit the Cowboys receivers last year. 800+ yards and 11 TD’s later he took him money and is now the Jags #1 receiver. Going from Tony Romo to Blaine Gabbert will not be good for his stat line. I actually think he’s a sleeper if Chad Henne somehow wins that job.- Mario Manningham–I’ve always liked Manningham but I’m just unsure of how the receiving situation will work out in SF with Moss, Crabtree, and A.J. Jenkins in town. If he starts, I think he could be a high end WR4 with WR3 upside. If he is the third receiver, I wouldn’t roster him.
- Mike Williams–With his size and lack of deep speed, he’s more of a possession receiver. He was a lower end WR2 or high end WR3 going into last year but everyone in Tampa disappointed. Keep an eye on him this year as he could be a steal late in the draft.
- Randall Cobb–It won’t be long before he takes the third receiver job from James Jones. When he does, he becomes a strong WR4 with a slight uptick in value from returns. An injury to Greg Jennings or Jordy Nelson makes him a WR2.
- Eric Decker–I feel like I have him ranked too low. Peyton Manning’s arm is the reason he’s here. If he looks good in preseason Decker’s value skyrockets. He could be a monster in PPR leagues.
- Doug Baldwin–Baldwin was an undrafted rookie last year who surprised everyone by leading the Seahawks in receiving, although that isn’t saying much. If Tavaris Jackson is the starter I like him a bit more as they had a good rapport. Not sure how he’ll do with Matt Flynn.
Davone Bess–If you’re in a PPR league, Bess is a strong WR3. In standard leagues he’s probably a low end WR4. He’s not going to score many touchdowns but he should get 6-8 receptions a game for 60 yards or so. When Ryan Tannehill gets his shot, I like him even more.- Devery Henderson–Henderson has been a consistent 6-700 yard 6 TD receiver for a number of years now. The loss of Robert Meachem could mean more opportunities for Henderson or maybe someone else. That’s why he’s ranked here.
- Austin Collie–Once upon a time Collie was the best white receiver in the game. He’s now been passed up by Jordy Nelson and Eric Decker. He hasn’t been able to stay healthy his whole career and now has a rookie QB. He might get drafted based off of having a starting job and name value but he isn’t worth it.
Brian Quick–Surprisingly, Quick is my top rated rookie receiver. He’s got a good shot at the number one spot and has a good size/speed combo. Rookie receivers are notorious for not being that great with exceptions for elite guys like Calvin Johnson, A.J. Green, and Randy Moss. 2013 is when you should look for Quick.- Michael Floyd–Floyd has the number two spot all but locked down but he’s got either John Skelton or Kevin Kolb as a QB and Larry Fitzgerald across from him. Add in the fact he’s a rookie and you’re looking at maybe 700 yards from him at best.
- Chad Johnson–He couldn’t produce with Tom Brady, what do you think he’s going to do with Matt Moore/David Garrard?
- Justin Blackmon–Seeing a trend here? I don’t waste picks on rookie receivers, ever. Especially ones with Blaine Gabbert at QB.
- Nate Washington–Washington managed to squeak out a 1,000 yard receiving year but he has Kenny Britt returning (albeit with a suspension looming) and rookie Kendall Wright probably being the second receiver. He is a WR5 unless an injury happens.
- Devin Hester–No longer a starter, he’s an option only in leagues that count big points for return TD’s/yards.
- Michael Crabtree–I think this train left the station. Possession receiver at best.
- Emmanuel Sanders–If Mike Wallace holds out for any part of the season, Sanders becomes a low end WR3. If I were the Steelers I’d trade Wallace and replace him with Sanders. Underrated player.
- Golden Tate–There is talk of Tate being much improved but he has a lot of competition with bad QB’s throwing to him. I wouldn’t draft him.
- Jonathan Baldwin–Baldwin is a really intriguing player. He’s probably ranked too low. He has elite size/speed combo and if Matt Cassel can stay healthy this year, he could be a WR4 with upside.
- Kendall Wright–Rookie receiver who I’d wait till next year before I consider him.
- A.J. Jenkins–See Kendall Wright.
- Alshon Jeffrey–Jeffrey has a bit more value than most rookie receivers because of his size. Unfortunately, he has Brandon Marshall who is the same size across from him.
- Reuben Randle–Noticing a trend?
- Stephen Hill–How about now?
- Ryan Broyles–Now?
- Josh Gordon–I think you got it.